Stephen King

Profile: Full name: Stephen King Area of interest: UK and international economic issues Journals/Organisation: The Independent Email: stephen.king@hsbcib.com Personal website: Website: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/stephen-king Blog: Representation: Networks:

Biography: About: http://www.hsbc.com/1/2/emerging-markets/em-index/press-room/biographies Education: Oxford University: economics and philosophy Career: H.M.Treasury: civil service economic adviser; joined HSBC in 1988: specialist on Japanese economy, 1990/1993, specialist on European economy, 1993/1998, chief economist, 1998- Current position/role: Economic commentator for The Independent, since 2001 also writes/written for: Other roles/Main role: HSBC's group chief economist and global head of economics and asset allocation research (responsible for HSBC’s global economic coverage and co-ordinates the research of HSBC economists all over the world) Other activities: Member of the European Central Bank Shadow Council, since 2007 Disclosures: Viewpoints/Insight: Broadcast media: Video: Regularly appearances on television and radio Controversy/Criticism: Awards/Honours: Scoops: Other: Has given written and oral evidence on the economic effects of globalisation to the House of Commons Treasury, Civil Service Committee, House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee, and has given oral evidence to the House of Lords Committee on UK monetary policy

Books & Debate: Latest work: Losing Control: The emerging threats to western prosperity OCLC449854394 Yale 2010 Speaking/Appearances: Debate:

The Independent: Column name: Remit/Info: UK and international economic issues Section: Business Role: Commentator Pen-name: Email: stephen.king@hsbcib.com Website: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/stephen-king Commissioning editor: Day published: Monday Regularity: Weekly Column format: Average length:

Articles: 2012 All journals The growing Spanish crisis calls for a fiscal union - The A-List: Just when it seemed safe to go outside, another storm is gathering on the eurozone horizon - 26th March What Ptolemy tells us about Germany and Greece - The eurozone needs a theory of relativity - 21st February A thousand years on,an updated Silk Road will bypass the West - Economic Outlook: In many parts of the emerging world the state and commerce are closely aligned - 30th January Things can only get better? There's always another crisis ahead - Faced with a low cost of capital, investors chased easy wins. Discipline went out of the window - 23rd January Hard times... Prepare yourself for the worst, our debt is here to stay - Economic Outlook: High government debt does not have to threaten the fabric of economic life - 9th January The Seventies were just dire – let's resolve to put them firmly behind us - Economic Outlook: No one should want to return to the Seventies but we are in danger ofheading back to something strikingly similar - 3rd January

Articles: 2011 Western economies look more troubled than at the start of 2011 - Economic Outlook: Despite a slight improvement recently, the main US theme through 2011 is disappointment - 19th December Simply making debtors suffer is not a solution to the eurozone crisis - Economic Outlook: The eurozone is fast becoming enclosed in a straitjacket that was manufactured in Germany - 12th December To heal the Sicks – and to punish them – they must be broken up - Economic Outlook: Perhaps it is time to bring back the Kingdom of Piedmont-Sardinia and the Papal States - 28th November It's time for a revolution in Germany's inflation targets and thinking - Economic Outlook: If Germany insists on inflation below 2 per cent, the eurozone adjustments will never happen - 14th November Now opened, the door to exit eurozone can no longer be shut - Economic Outlook: In truth, the existing eurozone rules are broken by the many, not the few - 7th November Will Sending Around The Begging Bowl Really Solve The Eurozone Crisis? - Economic Outlook: The Chinese should be able to provide more than loose change to help the eurozone - 31st October Euro meltdown would pave the way for another Great Depression - Outlook: Imagine that Europe is unable to agree on a convincing solution. What sort of system would we be left with? - 17th October Politicians can't always find the right answer - Failing to deal with the budget deficit could mean more pain for the UK - 10th October Italy’s creditors have turned into loan sharks - When a country’s in trouble, rating agencies can give it the kiss of death. Its neighbours must give it the kiss of life - 22nd September (writing in The Times) If we looked at the bigger picture, the eurozone's problems would disappear - Economic Outlook: If some countries have lower-than-average inflation, it must follow that others should have inflation that is higher than average - 19th September Saving the euro gets more difficult by the week - Economic Outlook: The key thing is to persuade investors the euro really does have a future and that any political inconsistencies can be resolved - 12th September The magicians of monetarism have very few tricks left up their sleeves - Developed economies are ending up with economic permafrost, where attempts to kick-start growth bump into economic reality - 29th August Our economic woes show that there is nothing unique about Japan - Economic Outlook: Economic outcomes in the Western world have, to date, been far worse than in Japan in the early years of stagnation - 22nd August Markets are driven by a future view – and now reality is starting to bear on it - Economic Outlook: Never assume August is going to be a quiet month. In the first week, we seemed to be on the verge of a financial apocalypse - 15th August US downgrade just confirms what we already know – its economy is in a mess - Economic Outlook: The US budgetary position is a mess – in much the same way that the Pope is Catholic and bears do their business in the woods - 8th August Unemployment picture shows that the US economy has lost its vigour - Rot set in long before the financial crisis - 11th July No taxation without representation - European opt-outs should not be able to rely on support from their partners - 4th July Latter-day Gold Standard leaves eurozone countries facing grim choices - Central Bank is against a default restructuring - 27th June Western nations may be forced to sell off some of their prized assets - Economic outlook: We have been relying on a pace of economic growth which may now be beyond our reach, a sobering realisation - 19th June A week when you finish up clutching a pair of scissors - It's been a "could've, should've, would've" kind of week - 13th June Inflation fears have gone – now it's growth - Manufacturing surveys from around the world provide a miserable message - 6th June Off with its head? - The four 'impossible' solutions that face the eurozone - 30th May The IMF should be looking further than the eurozone for its new head - Economic Outlook: Europe should be able to solve its crisis itself. After all, the creditors and debtors are all EU members - 23rd May UK's monntary independence is a blessing for the eurozone - Economic outlook: Oil prices hit a sterling record - 16th May A tale of two weddings. - How the royals reflect the financial mood, now and in 1981 - 2nd May US policymakers' failure to act has justified downgrade - The US could have austerity imposed through the back door - 25th April Inflation targeting has not worked - The new behemoths make the control of inflation more difficult - 11th April More Keynesian than Keynes was – and more wrong than right this time - But George Osborne's numbers are also based on some very optimistic assumptions regarding a pick-up in trade - 4th April Rebalancing the British economy is easier to say than it will be to do - Economic outlook: Sterling's sharp decline might create conditions for an export renaissance – but 'might' is not 'will' - 28th March Rebalancing the British economy is easy to say - Sterling's decline might create conditions for an export renaissance - 28th March Events in Libya, not Japan, will shape us - What if a no-fly zone is needed in other parts of the region? - 21st March The ECB needs to look at the bigger picture beyond the German economy - Outlook: With 70 per cent of the eurozone in a sickly economic state, is it right that interest rates should be going up? - 7th March Oil prices are rising fast and it's come at the worst possible time for the West - Outlook: In 2008, oil prices approached $150 per barrel. Shortly afterwards, the global economy collapsed - 28th February Split beyond belief – so where next for the Bank and for mortgage rates? - What's gone wrong? Why can't the experts on the Monetary Policy Committee see eye to eye? - 21st February Bias in the Bank's inflation strategy risks losing public backing it needs - Outlook: A credit-constrained economy won't be able to generate high inflation for ever, yetthe split between growth and inflation has deteriorated rapidly - 7th February The question that went unanswered in Davos: who ultimately pays? - Can debtor nations deliver austerity year after year or must creditor nations take some of the burden? - 31st January Sartorial diplomacy won't be enough as the Chinese grow more confident - The US borrowed too much and invested it in real estate, but many US policymakers are keen to blame China - 24th January The British worker is suffering the pain of inflation – but in Ireland it's worse - The bottom line is that workers are bearing the brunt of the adjustment to hard times - 17th January A question of faith... will the dollar escape unscathed from QE2? - Outlook: A weaker dollar would ultimately increase the cost to the US of accessing international capital markets and increase the cost to consumers of imports - 4th January

Articles: 2010 Even if in one's fond imagination there was a golden age, life expectancy has never been greater - Outlook: Many of you have by now discovered that surfing the internet can conjure up all sorts of interesting material. Being an economist, I try to ignore the more obvious temptations and focus instead on facts and figures - 29th December Policymakers have their work cut out as the West remains on life support - Outlook: Exports have picked up, but not as much as you'd expect given the support from 2008's sterling devaluation, while inflation has risen - 20th December Attack-dog Blanchflower needs leashing - The TV and radio soundbites are too short to give the proper context to Professor David Blanchflower's inflammatory outpourings against Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England - 6th December Eurozone states will need an act of union to save single currency - The European Central Bank could expand its balance sheet to purchase government bonds shunned by private sector investors - 29th November Who needs who? America and China must avoid making past mistakes again - Western nations look at the recent success of the emerging world with a mixture of admiration, envy and anger - 22nd November Don't let the G20 follow the League of Nations into the dustbin of history - Outlook: The biggest threat to the success of the G20 comes from the obvious point that the 'new powers' are pushing the 'old powers' to one side - 15th November Imbalancing act as G20 ministers still fail to deliver - Outlook: If we treated the euro area as a single economy – as we treat the US – we would only worry about the eurozone as a whole - 25th October As currency wars wind up, will quick thrills call the shots? - Outlook: Should America print more dollars, there is a risk that demand takes off in the emerging world leading to inflation and asset bubbles - 18th October China baulks at sharing the West's post-party hangover - The US may soon switch on its monetary printing press to churn out more dollars, benefiting its exporters even as other nations lose out - 11th October Will Europe's debt crisis lead to closer political union? - At the beginning of the year, Ireland was the poster child for the merchants of austerity. While the people of Greece seemed either unable or unwilling to accept massive cuts in public spending, the Irish stoically accepted their fate, resigned to a prolonged period of self-flagellation - 4th October The West has not learnt the vital lessons from Japan's economic travails - Outlook: The Western world is facing a nominal crisis: too much debt, too little inflation and an absence of effective conventional policy levers - 20th September The UK economy won't rebalance until we recognise the world has changed - Outlook: The UK didn't go into recession alone, and exports therefore were unable to make any headway even as imports collapsed - 13th September Scarce resources should give all governments serious food for thought - We live in a world of ultimately scarce resources. The increase in global demand for the basics of human life is likely to outpace any increase in supply - 6th September It's all very clear how Japan lost a decade, but will others make the same mistake? - Outlook: Unless a decent recovery is already in the bag, the public will have doubts about the potency of policymakers and the tools at their disposal - 31st August Never mind the Jet Blue flight attendant, what about the economy, stupid? - Outlook: The US is showing signs of traumatic economic weakness, not seen in the post-war period. Avoiding the doubledip would not be a sign that the trauma is over - 23rd August Austerity can be postponed by a fiscal stimulus – but it can't be avoided altogether - It is their attachment to models which partially explains the failure of governments, central banks, ratings agencies and banks to see the error of their ways - 26th July Western economies are still in danger of sinking under an ocean of self-created debt - As the UK's new Government delivers unprecedented austerity, the great deleveraging will affect the UK as much as everyone else - 19th July Back to the future with austerity measures that will test our tolerance - The tricky issue is that this Government, like those in the Seventies, may not have the mandate to deliver its austerity measures - 6th July To stimulate or not to stimulate? That is the question - Who is right? The Americans want to see other parts of the world offering more economic stimulus. The Europeans think there's been too much stimulus already - 28th June The moment of truth will be the day the US opts to default by stealth - In the UK the printing press, on its own, has not been able to do the trick. The Governmentis about to deliver a bitter medicine - 14th June The Office for Budget Responsibility must be prepared to defy the fiscal consensus - The Treasury will no longer have the opportunity to redefine the economic cycle or fiddle the economic forecasts to suit its own purposes - 31st May Politicians in Europe are fighting back against the domination of the markets - Action to 'improve' the functioning of a market can sometimes make the situation worse, not better - 24th May To cut, or not to cut... That is the question facing Britain's government - If creditors lose their faith in ordinary government bonds the entire financial edifice could come crashing down - 17th May Forget the sterile debates, we are all facing a future of austerity and sacrifice - !n reality, British society is increasingly at the mercy of events elsewhere in the world - 3rd May Exports can't solve all our problems - UK exports are unlikely to do very much if the main market remains just over the Channel - 21st April 2010 Prosperity is a matter of timing - I am about to be grossly unfair because, for the purposes of this article, I am going to assume that Labour loses the general election on 6 May This, I stress, is not a prediction but, instead, a way to allow me to offer some economic comparisons - 12th April A lesson in public finances history - Governments cannot increase borrowings indefinitely. Someone has to take the pain - 6th April The truth about spending cuts - The major parties have deliberately ducked the issue of their fiscal priorities - 29th March A stronger EU will boost the euro - Most acts of political integration have their difficulties – the EU is no exception - 22nd March Deflation... the next big surprise? - The UK is unusual today because, unlike many other countries, inflation is a little too high - 8th March Staring at a new age of austerity - At this stage, we can't be sure we haven't been looking at a phantom recovery - 1st March Look beyond the UK for a true guide to economic austerity - If you want to know what fiscal austerity now looks like, look at Iceland or Greece - 22nd February Another Greek tragedy unfolds - It's not difficult to generate a vicious downward spiral leading to unrest - 8th February No bust, but still far from boom - Economies are on life support, and it's not clear what happens when that is removed - 1st February Danger of a US-China trade war - It's not difficult to imagine a US President adopting a China-bashing manifesto - 25th January Beware the stock market herd - Optimism in the stock markets is based on not much more than faith in the herd - 18th January Japan's stagnant economy warns us that we are not yet in the clear - In 2010, we will discover if the West is also suffering from Japan-style problems - 11th January

Articles: 2009 In the cold, clear light of the new year, lessons of the 1970s loom - If the public know that public finances don't add up, their behaviour will change - 21st December Dubai's November pain provides a glimpse of what may lie ahead - The Dubai episode reveals that the global financial crisis is not yet over - 30th November Gold prices are a dead giveaway - The recovery of asset markets tells us hardly anything about longer-term growth - 16th November Developing economies show the way for the US and EU to recover - Emerging nations spend their money on investment goods, not modern-day ephemera - 9th November Is the Treasury running out of ammo to save the economy? - Foreign investors are selling the pound, making British exports more competitive - 26th October Cameron cannot look to the Thatcher years for his inspiration - No pain, no gain. That is the message coming from the Conservatives and, for that matter, from Labour too - 19th October US policymakers playing with fire as the dollar continues to tumble - A dollar collapse would be a disaster all round. It would drive up the cost of borrowing in the US - 12th October The weak pound offers a quick fix but no long-term solution - Devaluation is a dirty word. It stinks of failure. Every so often, the British economy succumbs, most famously in 1949, 1967 and 1992. Each time, as the UK lost its economic footing and sterling collapsed, the people of Britain were left to inhale the stench of political desperation - 28th September Obama must resist the siren call of protectionism ahead of the G20 - Outlook: Japan is no longer at the centre of American paranoia. That role has been foisted upon China - 21st September A more cautious approach to public finances will help to limit future risks - Independence from political interference does not guarantee economic stability - 14th September What happens to us if everyone else rushes for the financial exit? - The UK has already used up its conventional policy ammunition. The cupboard is bare - 7th September Central bankers blow bubbles in bid to balance rates and recovery - 'The world has been through the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression. The crisis in turn sparked a deep global recession, from which we are only now beginning to emerge." - 24th August As the global economy pivots, we face years of looming austerity - Debt-driven attempts at expansion by Western nations have unravelled - 17th August Does the Bank of England know something the rest of us don't? - They can prevent the worst economic outcomes. They cannot create the best - 10th August The emerging world deserves to catch up – and we must grow up - On either side of the Atlantic, housing markets are no longer in free-fall. On Friday, we discovered that US housing starts had unexpectedly risen in June, posting the highest number in seven months - 20th July China takes small steps towards breaking the sway of the US dollar - For nations sitting on piles of dollar assets, the fall in the dollar's value is hardly good news - 13th July The perils of learning from the past - High hopes dashed. No, not Andy Murray's unsuccessful quest to win Wimbledon this year. I'm thinking of last Thursday's US employment report for June - 6th July Who will end this financial insanity? - Mervyn isn't happy with Alistair because Alistair's housekeeping doesn't quite add up. Adair isn't happy with Mervyn because Mervyn wants to play with Adair's regulatory toys - 29th June Good luck, not good providence, was at the core of happier times - It is now difficult to talk with a straight face of the so-called era of stability - 22nd June The housing market is one of the main unknowns in any upturn - The flexible labour market may mean tremendous downward pressure on wages - 15th June The economic mess began when profligacy replaced prudence - The UK economy had been suffering fiscal neglect long before the credit crunch - 1st June Runaway growth was a sign of excess credit and risk-taking - The Bank of England never properly dealt with inflation shocks from abroad - 18th May China could emerge ahead of the field in this latest stress test - China is made of sterner stuff – as it proved during the 2001 recession - 11th May Spring is in the in the air, but not all green shoots make it to summer - Like swine fever, economic buds seem to be turning up all over the place - 5th May The Chancellor's golden goose is no more and the cash has run out - A rebalancing of the economy may leave the Treasury permanently short of money - 27th April Economic forecasters could learn something from meteorologists - Forecasters got their projections badly wrong – the Treasury's were particularly misleading - 20th April Domestic demands may scupper a worldwide economic solution - How much will the financial crisis eventually cost? - 30th March Experiments that could blow us up - It is bad enough explaining to people what quantitative easing is, let alone what it actually does. Part of the problem lies with the different approaches adopted by central banks on either side of the Atlantic - 23rd March The rest of the world still has a lot to learn from the Japanese - What, today, counts as economic policy success? The G20 finance ministers, pictured, promised over the weekend to "take whatever action is necessary until growth is restored." That, though, is a rather weak formulation - 16th March The policy to print money is right but we must be told how it works - There is something wonderfully quirky about the way in which a major change in monetary arrangements is announced in the UK - 9th March As capitalism stares into the abyss, was Marx right all along? - We may avoid a 1930s Depression but the best we can hope for may be a 1990s Japan - 2nd March Let's admit that rate cuts will not end the crisis, printing money will - "Chugger chugger chugger chugger"... yes, it's the sound of the printing press - 16th February Fiscal and monetary policy can do little without some return of trust - How bad is the current crisis? - 9th February Roquefort cheese dispute may be first whiff of a return to financial nationalism - Politicians can all too easily be seduced by the superficial appeal of protectionism. There are votes in it - 2nd February The Bank of England needs to look back – and think the unthinkable - there is a crying need for a revolution in central bank thinking, equivalent to the rejection of the gold standard in the 1930s - 26th January Bank of England was powerless in the face of excessive credit growth - Over recent years, Britain's policymakers have seen their capacity to influence economic outcomes diminish as Britain's economic development has become increasingly dependent on the waxing and waning of capital flows from abroad - 19th January You can't buy confidence when the economy is in a state of collapse - Britain's weather may be distinctly chilly at the moment, but its economic climate is a lot frostier. And unlike the weather, there's no escape - 12th January No gold medals for UK's economic performance as hopes turn to ashes - By awarding honours to sportsmen and women, we can pretend that Britain is still Great. Britain's economy, though, is a bit of a failure - 5th January

Articles: 2008 First the Chinese accumulated dollars, now everyone is joining the stampede - What caused the crisis? For some, the story is simple. It’s all about global imbalances - 15th December 2008 In rush to embrace Keynes, are we forgetting the vital role of markets? - There are moments in any economic cycle when one's worst fears are confirmed. Friday's US employment release provided one of those occasions. Those who were hanging on to the belief that, somehow, there was a disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street will have to think again - 8th December 2008 Bernanke's blueprint for dealing with the horrors of debt deflation - In late 2002, Ben Bernanke gave a speech entitled "Deflation: Making Sure 'It' Doesn't Happen Here". Then, Mr Bernanke was merely a Fed Governor and had yet to make his way to the very summit of the central banking profession. Nevertheless, there can be no doubt that the thoughts expressed in that speech are thoughts which, once again, are very relevant - 1st December 2008 If interest rate cuts cannot solve the money shortage, turn on the printing press - As people hoard money, so output weakens and prices fall, as in the 1930s = 24th November 2008 Another British currency crisis – it's enough to make you feel nostalgic - 17th November 2008 Creditor nations may be looking to pick up some corporate silverware - Rather than lending to Western governments who then decide how the money is best spent, perhaps China and others will instead demand to own Western companies outright, requiring a sale of the West's family silver - 10th November 2008 Sometimes the economic beauty contest gets us into an ugly mess - We don't buy a company's shares based on any sense of fundamental value. Instead, we buy a company's shares based on our perception of what others might regard as a company's fundamental value. Others are, of course, doing the same - 27th October 2008 Memo to Gordon... think radical and dump the Bank's inflation target - Whisper it quietly, but it's just possible that the Bank of England's inflation target contains a fatal flaw - 20th October 2008 Lessons from the Great Depression of the 1930s have not been learnt - the increases in debt in recent years bear close comparison with the gains seen in the 1920s, another period when people spent as though there was no tomorrow - 13th October 2008 Roosevelt's lesson... a decisive act to break the psychology of depression - 6th October 2008 In Mexico, they've seen it all before. And there are lessons for all of us - Their view was simple. The US – and, for that matter, parts of Europe – is experiencing the kinds of problems associated with emerging economies - 29th September 2008 'Capitalism can be incredibly unstable and state intervention is back, big time' - Last week's threatened bust was on a scale way bigger than anything in living memory. It looked like the financial system would completely implode - 22nd September 2008 As Madonna and the banks know, when trust is lost it's time to say your prayers - 15th September 2008 Interest rate cuts won't cause another bubble, but they could relieve the pain - 8th September 2008 Interest rates should come down but the damage to growth has been done - 1st September 2008 Zimbabwe and Jamaica run away with the economically adjusted Olympics - 26th August 2008 A miserable time looms for America as the boomers become pensioners - 4th August 2008 Time for a spoonful of Reaganomics to help the inflation medicine go down - 28th July 2008 Public funds needed to resolve financial crisis – and taxpayer will pick up the bill - 21st July 2008 What would the fashionable investor do now when desperate for returns? - 14th July 2008 It's time for the central banks to take a lesson in emerging market economics - 7th July 2008 What if the Bank has lost its magic? - 30th June 2008 Pay restraint? Punk economics - 23rd June 2008 We must be cruel to be kind to save the world from a longer-term headache - 16th June 2008 The mounting dangers of central banks' high-wire act - 9th June 2008 We must keep our heads, even if others lose theirs - 2nd June 2008 Will our central banks make a Freudian slip over their illusory control of price stability? - As oil and other commodity prices rise, there's a sense that our inflationary destiny no longer lies with our central banks - 27th May 2008 Power unleashed by emerging markets threatens to upset West's economic plans - Like unruly teenagers, the emerging markets will have to make their own mistakes - 19th May 2008 Stephen King: As safe as houses? How harsh realities are dispelling the home market myths - People are led to believe that homes are automatic generators of additional wealth. This argument is mostly spurious - 12th May 2008 Stephen King: Give globalisation a human face - 6th May 2008 Inflation catches banks in a cleft stick - 28th April 2008 Food protectionism could provoke a crisis on a par with 1970s oil shocks - 21st April 2008 Politicians' acts of denial give the game away - 14th April 2008 From Pope Pius VII to the credit crunch, market failure lives on - If regulators and policymakers fail to deliver, we'll end up with more false hope and moreimpoverishment - 7th April 2008 Low inflation isn't everything: just ask a Twenties flapper - Did the absence of inflation in the 1920s merely offer a false sense of security? - 31st March 2008 Central banks have the power to avert another catastrophic depression - Tuesday, 25th March 2008 Radical measures needed to get us out of this terrifying game of Russian roulette - 17th March 2008 Ultimately, Mr Darling is keeping his fingers crossed - 'As financial markets implode, there are good reasons to think the UK will be more vulnerable than most' - Thursday, 13th March 2008 It's time for the Fed to find a good plumber - 3rd March 2008 Emerging economies are repeating our old mistakes - 25th February 2008 Misguided thinking of those who say recession would purge the system - 11th February 2008 The Fed cuts rates while the ECB frets over inflation. Which one has it right? - 4th February 2008 Market convulsions will lead to the return of the state as a major economic force - 28th January 2008 If the West denies chances to emerging countries, it will only end in tears - 21st January 2008 If the Fed is busy mobilising its economic weapons, why is the Bank holding back? - 14th January 2008 It's the economy again, stupid... here we go again - The US election is one to avoid winning. Whoever wins will probably find their victory is a poisoned chalice - 7th January 2008

News & updates:

References:

Links: