Wolfgang Münchau

Profile: Full name: Wolfgang Munchau Area of interest: European Union, European economy Journals/Organisation: Financial Times Email: Wolfgang.Münchau@ft.com Personal website: Website: FT.Com / Wolfgang Munchau Blog: Representation: Networks: https://twitter.com/#!/EuroBriefing

Biography: About: http://www.oenb.at/de/img/ok_munchau_1_seite_tcm14-193032.pdf Education: City University: International Journalism MA; Reutlingen: Diplom-Betriebswirt Career: The Times: roles including Washington and Brussels correspondent, 1988/95; Financial Times: Frankfurt correspondent, economics correspondent (reported on the preparation for the final stage of monetary union and the launch of the Euro), co-editor of Financial Times Deutschland; FT Associate Editor, 2003- Current position/role: Associate Editor, European economic columnist also writes/has written for: blogs for Euro Intelligence about 'euro area' issues Other position/role: Other activities: Disclosures: Viewpoints/Insight: Broadcast media: Video: Controversy/Criticism: Awards/Honours: Wincott Young Financial Journalist of the Year 1989 Scoops: Other:

Books & Debate: European economic and monetary union OCLC38353674 et al, 1997 Germany and Britain: an alliance of necessity OCLC49784470, 2002 (with Heather Grabbe) Latest work: Speaking/Appearances: http://www.specialistspeakers.com/?p=1070 | [http://www.rsa.org.uk/events/speakerCloseUp.asp?speakerID=1313 RSA Lectures, 2006 Current debate:

Financial Times: Column name: Remit/Info: European Union, European economy Section: Comment Role: Commentator, FT Associate Editor Pen-name: Email: munchau@eurointelligence.com Website: FT.Com / Wolfgang Munchau Commissioning editor: Day published: Monday Regularity: Weekly Column format: Average length: 850 words

Articles: 2012 The only way to stop a eurozone bank run - Case for bloc-wide deposit insurance and bank resolution regime - 21st May Default now or default later? - By following the bailout programme, Greece will suffer a decade of depression - 14th May The only solution to the eurozone crisis - The answer is a combination of debt monetisation through the ECB and default into the ESM - 7th May Hollande is start of progressive insurrection - Sarkozy flunked reform in 2007 for a reason: hyperactivity - 30th April The sadly unpalatable solution for the eurozone - A centralised banking resolution and supervision system is the of its needs - 23rd April Spain has accepted mission impossible - To hit its target Madrid would have to fire so many people there would be a political insurrection - 16th April The prize for European political illiteracy - Economics is doing itself no favours - a shame because the eurozone lacks macroeconomic input - 9th April The G20 should say no to the eurozone - A return to the negotiating table is best option - 2nd April Europe’s bailout bazooka is proving to be a toy gun - If you do not want a eurobond there is no likely backstop for Spain - 26th March There is no Spanish siesta for the eurozone - ECB has slowed down process to solve the crisis - 19th March Bravo Merkel on campaigning for Sarko - We are seeing a move to pan-EU party politics - 12th March The Bundesbank has no right at all to be baffled - Mr Weidmann might as well have suggested sending in the Luftwaffe to solve the euro crisis - 5th March Greece really needs a year to prepare for total default - Months of misery lie ahead but if all goes well, Greece will have some room to manoeuvre - 27th February Greece must default if it wants democracy - Germany’s proposal for Greek elections to be postponed is unethical - 20th February Why Greece and Portugal ought to go bankrupt - To ignore reality for another two years will be ruinous - 12th February Germany: A Bric, or just stuck in a hard place? - Germany too big for normnal European state, not big enough to for superpower - 6th February Fiscal treaty could trigger a debt explosion - If Spain follows Greece and ignores what happened in Japan, a lengthy recession is likely - 30th January The IMF should stay out of the eurozone crisis - Considering how rich the eurozone is, the request to involve the fund in a hypothetical rescue is morally reprehensible - 22nd January After the downgrades comes the downward spiral - The eurozone has exhausted its toolkit - 16th January

Articles: 2011 Grim lessons from the 30 years war - Europeans have been delaying making hard decisions for a long time - 29th December UK will fare better in this Anglo-French spat - Britain is not trapped – France is economically a sub-sovereign zone - 19th December Snags, diversions – and the crisis goes on - Leaders should have admitted the summit had simply failed - 12th December Europe has created a new crisis - The A-List - 9th December France and Germany look set to fudge it yet again - What is needed is not to reconcile austerity and sovereignty proposals, but to reject them - 5th December The eurozone really has only days to avoid collapse - Angela Merkel can get her fiscal union, but in return she will now have to accept a eurobond - 28th November The only way to save the eurozone from collapse - The introduction of a Eurobond would catalyse further political integration - 14th November Summitry again proves its own irrelevance - Each G20 gathering promises solutions and fails to deliver - 7th November What saves the euro will kill the union - Policies needed to solve the crisis are inconsistent with the idea of the EU as a ‘club of clubs’ - 31st October Half measures and wishful thinking do not a solution make - A-List: The day may yet come when the eurozone finally agrees a comprehensive package to end the crisis, but this was not the day - 27th October Europe is now leveraging for a catastrophe - Biggest danger now is the large number of political red lines - 24th October Why Europe’s officials lose sight of the big picture - The experts are either ill-informed or lying - 17th October The fallacy of the ‘big bazooka’ -The A-List: Adopt joint and several liability if you want to preserve global financial stability - 12th October Eurozone quick-fix will create political monster - Countries such as the UK might block move for a single banking supervisor - 10th October Eurozone fix a con trick for the desperate - The most recent crazy idea pursued by officials is to turn the rescue fund into a collateralised debt obligation - 3rd October Zero hour for the euro - The world’s inability to shake of the economic downturn and contagion in Italy have changed the nature of the eurozone crisis - 25th September Eurobonds and fiscal union are the only way out - A periphery that includes Italy and Spain is too big to save with the current limited liability process - 19th September Stop rejoicing. This was no victory for the eurozone - Only the ECB is left to prevent a break-up of the eurozone - 12th September The worst of the euro crisis is yet to come - Uncoordinated policies give us contagious austerity and downturn - 5th September Even a joint bond might not save the euro - Uncertainty over a fragile consensus suggests investors are perfectly rational to bet against the single currency - 29th August The eurozone crisis is on pause, not over - A third loan package to Greece is on the cards - 25th July Eurozone on the precipice - Leaders should not get obsessed with obscure technicalities of a deal - 21st July Plan D stands for default . . . and the death of the euro - The crisis is now moving at a rate that exceeds Angela Merkel‘s political speed limit - 18th July Don’t blame Moody’s for a messy euro crisis - Everybody hates the rating agencies. But last week, they did us a favour - 11th July The Greek rollover pact is like a toxic CDO - Once the contraption’s treacherous nature is known, the politics of crisis resolution will be even harder - 4th July Maybe Greek MPs would be right to say No - The EU/IMF programme is hard to justify - 27th June Why debt rescues will boost the scenario of a closer union - A miniature fiscal union will not rid member states of economic sovereignty but will involve some loss of political control - 13th June Ingredients of a European political union - The first, and probably most important change would be the creation of the office of a eurozone treasury secretary - 6th June Soft options are no longer viable options - Bankroll Greece for as long as it takes, or face a hard default - 30th May Cosmetic surgery will not save the eurozone - Do we really want the ECB to choose between a reputational and a factual disaster? - 22nd May The IMF needs another European head - Europe would be foolish to let go of this position at a time like this - 16th May Dogmatists raise the costs of eurozone crisis - The EU has only a single policy tool at its disposal until 2013: continued bail-out linked to continued austerity - 16th May The political causes of a not-so-secret meeting - This is not a debt crisis. This is a political crisis - 9th May The eurozone’s quack solutions will be no cure - A premature Greek default would be no bargain - 25th April Europe’s long road of tears to fiscal union - The choice today is between crisis resolution and putting off making a decision - 18th April Complacent Europe must realise Spain will be next - Spanish property prices have so far fallen only moderately - 11th April Politics will bedevil resolving the euro crisis - Must it be eurozone break-up or fiscal union? - 4th April A grand bargain that cannot end the crisis - Wolfgang Münchau on bad news for eurozone members - 28th March ‘Phantom giants’ will not save the eurozone - The European Council’s crisis resolution strategies have seemed impressive until you look closer - 21st March Muddling through will not work this time - The deal reached by EU leaders is politically smart, but will not resolve the debt crisis - 14th March Trichet’s real reasons for a rate rise - The ECB is becoming a party in an inter-institutional war - 7th March Say no to Germany’s competitiveness pact - Veto in March is a necessary first step - 28th February A misguided German narrative of the crisis - While the rest of us are debating how to solve Europe’s crisis, Angela Merkel is solving a crisis in a parallel universe - 21st February Draghi can lead the eurozone out of danger - If the ECB succession turns into a long and bitter fight, it could trigger another loss of confidence - 14th February Europe planning to solve the wrong crisis - Wolfgang Münchau laments why we dream about policy co-ordination in a post-crisis world, instead of tackling the problems we already have - 7th February Time to get real on Europe’s inflation target - When Germany exceeds the eurozone’s inflation average, a target below 2 per cent is as unrealistic as a no bail-out clause - 31st January The eurozone’s best solution is the least likely - EU officials have considered a bond repurchase programme for Greek debt but although Wolfgang Münchau sees how such a policy could be made to work, he points out that there would be problems - 24th January A German-led eurozone rescue - Angela Merkel is not going to take the kind of risks a genuinely expanded European financial stability facility would entail - 17th January The shock jocks at the gate - We too often presume the US “public square” style of partisan television cannot happen elsewhere - 17th January No happy new year for the eurozone - The bond market crisis is affecting the core eurozone and is spreading fast - 10th January

Articles: 2010 Expect some answers from the eurozone - The euro will remain a source of political, economic and financial instability - 30th December Berlin’s goal is limited liability - Will the voters of Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain tolerate a decade of austerity to stay in a union with Germany? - 20th December How a mini fiscal union could end instability - Even minimal uncertainty will drive investors away from the bond markets - 13th December Bond plan could end the euro crisis - Once the eurozone reaches the moment of truth, it may not be in a position to agree a fiscal union, simply because it may not be physically possible. Jean-Claude Juncker’s and Giulio Tremonti’s proposal for a common European bond would start the process - 9th December Europe is edging towards the unthinkable - If we were not starting from here, a less invasive solution could have been found years ago - 29th November How to stop Ireland’s financial contagion - It is absurd to make a loan contingent on issues of tax policy - 22nd November Fiscal union is crucial to the euro’s survival - The German anti-crisis proposal is all about default - 15th November An EU treaty change is necessary but hazardous - If Europe gets a bail-out mechanism in whichever form, it may well provoke the German justices to rule it unconstitutional - 1st November This stability pact obsession is not helpful - The real irony is that the pact, in whatever form, is not even relevant to the eurozone’s future - 25th October Does Weber really want to succeed Trichet? - It is hard to find someone who is more out of tune with the EU’s majority view on economic governance - 18th October The eurozone is wrong to look for the exit - It would be folly for the ECB to tighten policy - 11th October Ireland’s taxpayers have shouldered too much - European governments everywhere are scared of touching bondholders - 4th October Could any country risk a eurozone bail-out? - No euro member would want to borrow from the facility - 27th September Fear and loathing in Paris and Brussels - You can decline with a clear sense of direction. Or you can decline with panic and anger, as we see in Europe these days - 20th September A eurozone banking crisis left unresolved - Two years on there has been lots of activity but no resolution - 13th September Do not fall for talk of European solvency - Some countries are likely to repay only part of their debt - 6th September Germany’s rebound is no cause for cheer - Country is recovering faster this year because it contracted faster last year - 30th August A test cynically calibrated to fix the result - Ignoring a possible Greek default is like a car crash tester failing to consider the possibility of an oncoming vehicle - 26th July Europe requires end of Merkel and Sarkozy - Both leaders lack convincing strategy on crisis - 21st July Even eurozone optimists are not optimistic - The eurozone may end up in a low-growth equilibrium, similar to Japan in the 1990s - 12th July Europe risks failing the real test on banks - It is EU policy to deny that Greece might default - a real stress test might expose that as indefensible - 5th July Only a closer union can save the eurozone - Revert to dysfunctional and insolvent nation states, or jump to a political and economic union - 28th June We need the figures on Europe’s toxic banks - This is not a sovereign debt crisis at heart, but a banking crisis and a crisis of policy co-ordination failures - 20th June The eurozone’s tragic small-country mindset - EU message seems not to care about growth - 14th June Frankfurt’s shroud of secrecy should be shed - The EU and ECB need to have greater transparency - 7th June The false trail of austerity and a weak euro - The eurozone needs a consolidation strategy based on growth and a credible fiscal adjustment plan - 1st June Bad debt also threatens Europe’s strongest - If you believe some estimates, you might think Greece should be bailing out Germany - 24th May To save the eurozone, reform its governance - When the programme of credit guarantees ends in three years, the factors that led to the eurozone crisis will still be present - 17th May Germany pays for Merkel’s miscalculations - The population was not prepared for the chancellor’s U-turn - 11th May Europe’s choice is to integrate or disintegrate - The experiment of a monetary union without political union has failed - 4th May Greece is Europe’s very own subprime crisis - Portugal’s problems are different but they are no less severe - 26th April A Greek bail-out at last but no real solution - The numbers still don’t add up and I predict that Greece will default - 12th April Greece will default, but not this year - It is hard to arrive at any other scenario - 5th April Europe has resolved nothing over Greece - You wake up and realise the deal was mostly smoke and mirrors - 29th March Gaps in the eurozone ‘football league' - This is not a monetary union but a souped-up fixed exchange rate system - 22nd March Shrink the eurozone, or create a fiscal union - Germany’s EMF idea is a smokescreen for helping countries leave the monetary union Why the euro will continue to weaken - We have always known a monetary union cannot exist without political union in the long run - 8th March - 15th March Time to outlaw naked credit default swaps - They have not one social or economic benefit - 1st March Inflation must not become a moving target - Price stability is a critical part of the social contract we call money - 22nd February The political constraints of the eurozone - Germany will show solidarity to eurozone members if they are subject to attack - 15th February Europe needs to show it has a crisis endgame - The eurozone must end its fiscal ambiguity - 7th February What the eurozone must do if it is to survive - While the Greek government is at least beginning to recognise the need for reform, perhaps too late, Spain’s political establishment remains in denial - 1st February Spartan solutions from Brussels will be fought by Athens - Greece has no easy options to escape its economic woes. But if Europe tries to fudge the issue it will turn the crisis into a disaster - 23rd January

Articles: 2009 European farce descends into Greek tragedy - I am not condoning the way successive Greek governments have behaved. But to provoke a financial crisis is not a constructive way of dealing with this problem - 14th December Barnier is no threat but shame about his job - The appointment of Mr Barnier to the most important Commission portfolio after the presidency is indeed unfortunate, but for reasons other than those insinuated by the French president - 7th December Greece can expect no gifts from Europe - The EU’s authorities, rightly or wrongly, are more afraid of the moral hazard of a bail-out than the possible spillover effect of a hypothetical Greek default - 30th November Van Rompuy is the right man for the job - Belgian leadership consists of bringing consensus to a fractious coalition, exactly what the president of the EU has to do - 23rd November A Franco-German marriage of convenience - The need for France and Germany to pull together is ever more obvious to an increasing number of people in both countries - 16th November How to pick a new leader for Europe - An almost impossible job to fill - 9th November We must not be too late with starting the Big Exit - If we stick to the zero interest rate policy for too long, we risk a degree of economic instability much more extreme and costly than the recent financial crisis - 2nd November A polite discourse on bankers and bubbles - I suspect we are in another bubble in the global equity, bonds and commodity markets. Central banks should be prepared to prick them before they cause calamity - 26th October Countdown to the next crisis is already under way - This bubble will burst sooner - 19th October Making the case for a weaker dollar - Imagine a world with a small current account deficit in the US, a somewhat larger deficit in the eurozone and a not too excessive Asian surplus. In the long run, such a world would require significant reform of the monetary system. But in the short term, a fall in the dollar would help - 12th October Diverging deficits could fracture the eurozone - What is happening in Europe? France and Germany are both guilty of flouting the most important economic policy rule of the Maastricht treaty - 5th October A recognition of the deep roots of the crisis - We are still a long way from effectively dealing with the underlying causes of the crisis, but global imbalances have finally made it on to the agenda of the G20 summit - 28th September Much is at stake in the German election - There seems little enthusiasm for the forthcoming poll but there are matters of great importance to be decided - 21st September A pre-crisis treaty for a post-crisis world - I am an unenthusiastic supporter of the Lisbon treaty, but the Irish Yes campaign could once again find itself in a tight spot - 14th September Europe’s failure of ambition stunts growth - One of the probable long-term consequences of the financial crisis is an acceleration of Europe’s economic decline. This is by no means an inevitable outcome, but I fear it is likely - 7th September Central banks can adapt to life below zero - Do not be afraid of negative interest rates - 31st August How toxic finance created an unstable world - Global imbalances would not have become so extreme if global finance had not provided the instruments - 24th August There is no easy way out for central banks - They would not readily adopt policies they knew would lead to excessive inflation later on. The point is that they may not have a choice - 27th July Blair and Barroso: Europe’s team from hell - José Manuel Barroso and Tony Blair look likely to take the top two jobs in the EU, but this combination does not come close to reflecting the diversity of European opinion - 20th July Berlin has dealt a blow to European unity - Germany’s constitutional court has given a damning verdict on future European integration - 13th July Liquidity injections alone are not enough - Stimulus measures by a central bank, however large, cannot restore health to the banking sector in a sufficiently short period of time if the underlying problem is lack of solvency - 6th July Germany and France need to sing in tune - Debates over fiscal approaches aside, it is probably not a good idea for the two largest members of the eurozone to move in opposite directions - 29th June Berlin weaves a deficit hair-shirt for us all - The balanced-budget law is economically illiterate, but universally popular – Germans see debt in terms of morals, not economics. It is also last thing the eurozone needs right now - 22nd June Optimism is not enough for a global recovery - Instead of solving the problems to generate a recovery, the political strategies have consisted of waiting for a recovery to solve the problem. As everybody expects the others to move first, nobody moves. In the meantime, the problems grow worse - 15th June Down and out for the long term in Germany - The classic export nations hope for a miraculous bail-out from the US consumer – which is not going to happen this time - 8th June Time to safeguard Europe’s single market - After the moves to retrench back to national markets by the banks, there is a similar trend among carmakers. The single market is there on paper, but it is being undermined - 1st June We cannot inflate our way out of this crisis - It is a beggar-thy-neighbour policy - 25th May Germany needs more than an accounting trick - While US banks have already written off a fair proportion of the bad debts, the Europeans are adopting schemes that allow the banks to postpone resolution - 18th May Like a fish, Europe is rotting from the head - I have on previous occasions criticised the unco-ordinated policy response of Europe’s political leaders. Their anti-crisis strategy is to hope the US and China deliver sufficient growth to pull Europe out of recession. That will probably not happen this time - 11th May Europe must learn from Japan’s experience - I see nothing in our situation or our policy response to persuade me that it will take less than a decade to get out of this - 4th May Eurozone banking needs a co-ordinated strategy - By pursuing what they mistakenly perceive to be their national interest, European leaders not only damage the prospects of the eurozone, they end up damaging themselves - 27th April The London summit has not fixed the crisis - It ducked the question of bank rescue beyond a few meaningless and self-congratulatory statements. Instead, our leaders showed more interest in future crises than in the current one - 6th April Europe needs a better plan for its banks - As European leaders focus on tax havens and hedge funds, it is hard to detect a sense of urgency in dealing with the wider crisis - 30th March Europe needs a better plan for its banks - As European leaders focus on tax havens and hedge funds, it is hard to detect a sense of urgency in dealing with the wider crisis - 23rd March Collective action on the crisis is our best hope - I sense that European leaders are again hoping for an American miracle. Only this time, it is not going to happen - 16th March An L of a recession – reform is the way out - We are nowhere near a solution to the crisis, and judging by the state of preparations, the forthcoming G20 summit is going to be a disaster - 9th March 2009 Global policy shortcomings will cost us dear - Speculators, once more, are getting ready to deconstruct a European edifice but this time it will be one on a bigger scale - 2nd March Eastern crisis that could wreck the eurozone - The smartest answer to the prospect of meltdown is the adoption of the euro in the region as quickly as possible - 23rd February Narrow-minded leadership hurts Europe - The protectionism we are experiencing now is caused by co-ordination failure. It is neither sudden, nor surprising - 16th February Our lethargic leaders must work together on the crisis - The world would have been much better off with a speedier, perhaps smaller and globally co-ordinated package to tackle the global crisis - 9th February Europe’s bank falls into a false-logic trap - To believe you can avoid a liquidity trap by not cutting interest rates is simultaneously dangerous and absurd - 2nd February The benefits of a single European bond - Any substantial move towards joint issuance would produce a government bond market that is large and liquid - 26th January ‘What if’ becomes the default question - In a worst-case scenario with five or six eurozone defaulters, a full fiscal union would be more probable than a break-up - 19th January

Articles: 2008 World Economy in 2009: Three priorities for recovery - Policymakers will have to smarten up, work together and start thinking outside the box ito combat the 2009 global recession - 29th December 2008 Following the Fed cannot save the world - Instead of propping up each bank, and swamping the market with cash, we need to restructure and shrink the banking system - 22nd December 2008 Complacency rules as time slips away - We have already failed to avoid 1929. The best we can do is to avoid 1930, 1931 and 1932. It will depend on the policy response - 15th December 2008 No need to panic – we can beat deflation - There is a lot banks can do. For starters, they can drive through the zero boundary and impose negative interest rates - 8th December 2008 German complacency poses a serious threat - Looking at the financial crisis from Berlin, you could easily delude yourself into thinking this is someone else’s problem - 1st December 2008 Double jeopardy for financial policymakers - Bernanke has already deployed his weapon of mass desperation while still some distance away from a zero interest rate - 24th November 2008 Why the British may decide to love the euro - The facts have changed and the world’s two large reserve currencies, the dollar and the euro, offer more protection from speculative attack than a free-floating offshore currency unit - 17th November 2008 Fiscal policy is our most potent instrument - Monetary policy is playing little more than a supporting role in this economic crisis. It is fiscal policy which will count - 10th November 2008 Now they see the benefits of the eurozone - In good times, few people care about its offer of a joint policy framework and protection from speculative attacks. These are not good times - 3rd November 2008 Sarkozy’s attempted EU coup fails – for now - German officials have developed a habit of reacting negatively in anticipation of what the French might propose - 29th October 2008 Crisis needs more than one shot - Targeted recapitalisation, money market insurance and a stimulus package are all needed as part of a comprehensive strategy - 20th October 2008 Brown offers Europe a lesson in leadership - The good news is that governments are at last abandoning an ad hoc approach in favour of a systematic response - 13th October 2008 The case for a European bank rescue plan - A systemic banking crisis is one of the few conceivable shocks that could destroy Europe’s monetary union - 6th October 2008 Paulson’s problem presents lessons - While the US needs a better rescue plan, Europe needs a system that could produce a rescue plan in the first place - 29th September 2008 Defaults will test a fair-weather construction - The future of the global financial sector depends to an uncomfortable extent on speculative insurance market - 22nd September 2008 Sarkozy’s economic reform has come unstuck - You cannot lead the eurozone and break its most important rules. France has manoeuvred itself into a corner - 15th September 2008 How a downturn could turn into a disaster - Recent research suggests global investors might be inclined to switch out of dollars much faster than some people believe - 8th September 2008 Now is the wrong time to demand a rate cut - The ECB should treat a temporary fall in headline inflation just as it treated the temporary rise last year. It should ignore it - 1st September 2008 Sarkozy needs a more subtle approach - The ECB is right not to identify individual views. This may be the most destructive advice one could give right now - 28th July 2008 Eurogroup must shed complacency - The shocks that face Spain and Ireland will test the see-no-evil-hear-no-evil approach to governance - 21st July 2008 The wrong tools to tackle rising inflation - I remember a popular sticker in Germany during the 1970s, designed to ridicule the opponents of atomic energy. It read: “Nuclear power? No thanks! We get electricity from our power sockets.” - 14th July 2008 Recession is not the worst possible outcome - If this had been a mere financial crisis, it would be over by now. The fact that we are suffering its fourth wave tells us there might be something at work other than merely financial euphoria and bad regulation - 7th July 2008 The options for a Europe without a script - Simply to continue with Nice is out of the question. The negotiation of yet another treaty is not going to happen either - 30th June 2008 Ireland is wrong to put its miracle at risk - After a week of what European leaders call reflection, another Irish referendum beckons, to be held early next year. Without it, there might well be an attempt to oust the Irish from the European Union - 23rd June 2008 Europe's plan B for the Lisbon treaty - What is going to happen now after the Irish No vote? I would expect the European Union to find a way to implement the Lisbon treaty, leaving Ireland potentially isolated within the EU - 16th June 2008 Trichet justified in diverging from the Fed - In terms of global monetary policy, we are in the middle of a shift from a unipolar to a bipolar world - 9th June 2008 Berlin should take note of French reforms - President Nicolas Sarkozy made an important announcement in Warsaw last week. From July, the Polish plumber and other citizens of the 2004 accession countries to the European Union will be able to work freely in France... – 2nd June 2008 Inflation and the lessons of the 1970's - Inflation is rising and it seems the world’s central banks have critically misjudged the situation. Until a few months ago, most commentators worried about a repeat of the Great Depression. But the 1930s have virtually no relevance to our situation - 26th May 2008 The global euro needs a stronger apparatus - It happened to François Mitterrand in the run-up to the Maastricht Treaty on the European Union. It happened to Jacques Chirac a few years later and now it is happening to Nicolas Sarkozy. Successive French presidents have tried but failed to give the eurozone a layer of gouvernance économique beyond the present institutional setting - 12th May 2008 Italy needs to focus on its productivity growth - Over the years, I have observed this about the political economy of economic reform in Europe: there is an inverse relationship between the number of objectives and measures of a reform agenda and its ultimate success - 5th May 2008 Global adjustment will be long and painful - So this crisis is about to end, right? There are two failsafe ways to justify a solid dose of optimism: define the crisis in a sufficiently narrow way; and, even better, look at the wrong crisis. In that spirit I am happy to state my optimism about the prospective end of the subprime crisis - 28th April 2008 The princess’s cake gets an added crunch - “I remembered the way out suggested by a great princess when told that the peasants had no bread: ‘Well, let them eat cake.’” - 21st April 2008 Pessimism about the eurozone is misplaced - I am puzzled by the International Monetary Fund’s latest growth projections for the eurozone - 13th April 2008 Central banks must care about house prices - The International Monetary Fund last week gave central banks some wicked advice*. They should no longer ignore residential property prices when setting interest rates - 7th April 2008 Do not be alarmed by Icelandic whispers - Vicious rumours recently almost drove a British bank off a cliff. Could that happen to a country? - 30th March 2008 This crisis could bring the euro centre-stage - We know the credit crisis is a clear and present threat to the global economy. But its most important long-run legacy may not be economic, but geopolitical - 24th March 2008 Sarkozy’s reforms must reach beyond taxi licences - With the local elections now behind him, President Nicolas Sarkozy of France has an opportunity to relaunch his faltering reform agenda. It is impossible to underestimate the significance of such an effort, or its failure, to the Sarkozy presidency and the future of the French economy - 17th March 2008 Central bankers cannot stop this contagion - Since the start of the global financial crisis last August, monetary policy has been remarkably ineffective - 10th March 2008 A crisis in store for Spain’s election victor - The Spanish election this Sunday is too close to call. What is certain, however, is that the winner will spend the next four years cleaning up an economic mess of a scale not witnessed in Spain in modern times - 3rd March 2008 Britain can no longer depend on being cool - In the next few years, I expect the UK economic miracle to be exposed for what it was: an overlong joyride on the back of an overlong asset price bubble - 25th February 2008 Two nails in the coffin of German corporatism - It was always clear that German corporatism would not survive the first half of the 21st century. What was less clear was how long this process would last and which form its destruction would take - 18th February 2008 A repeat of the Great Depression is unlikely - How big is the risk of global deflation? Five years ago, central banks led by the US Federal Reserve fretted and cut short-term interest rates aggressively. This time the Fed is largely alone in seeking insurance against the possibility of a deflationary depression - 11th February 2008 Italy’s crisis offers a chance for change - Lasciate ogni speranza ch’entrate (Abandon all hope, ye who enter here) Dante, Inferno, Canto III. Dante’s hell is generally a good description of Italian politics - 4th February 2008 Expect the eurozone to show some resistance - Within minutes of last week’s rate cut by the Federal Reserve , market analysts predicted that the European Central Bank would have to do the same. When the US sneezes – you know the rest - 28th January 2008 America’s recession will be hard to shift - Monetary policy affects the economy with long and variable lags. This much we know. How long depends on the state of the economy in question - 21st January 2008 This is not merely a subprime crisis - If this had been a mere subprime crisis, it would now be over. But it is not, and nor will it be over soon - 14th January 2008 The credit revolution looks to the long-term - Over the past 20 years, the world economy has experienced two revolutions both of which gave rise to asset price bubbles. One was the rise of modern information technology. The other was the credit revolution – the inexorable rise of modern credit markets - 7th January 2008

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Links: http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolfgang_Münchau